The outlook is looking a lot like it did the last time I visited the issue. Lacalle Pou still leads the Blancos despite Sartori taking Larrañaga voters, the irrelevant Colorado primary is still a coin flip, and Martinez still has a commanding lead within the Fat Foreheads coalition. The minor parties are still irrelevant.
One peculiarity about how the party internals work here versus the party primaries back home is that here, they vote off of lists. The voters are expected to arrive to the polls with their chosen list which includes their candidate and anywhere from 50 to 500+ names of delegates supporting their candidate. They are also expected to bring a small light source because voting happens in the "dark room" which is apparently their solution to privacy. Thusly everywhere in the city with appreciable foot traffic has collections of "militants" handing out lists for "their" candidates. In nearly all cases the "militants" appear to be hired help.
There is a certain peculiar ethic as to how they hand out the lists. The folks are far too honest to dump them into the trash and declare mission accomplished. Instead they will hand out 3, 5, 9, or 10 lists so long as you appear receptive to receiving the lists. Because the culture war is a war, I have been declining offered lists of the Colorado and Frente candidates with a simple "Gracias, pero soy Blanco." I doubt this will have a profound impact in any particular situation, but over enough interactions it may "humanize" the Blanco cause in the same way my response to the Trump question "Of course I voted for Trump" grits the femstate's gears.
The list givers seem to follow certain trends. Luis and Larrañaga have a lot of Uruguayas and old men. Sartori has a lot of young Dominican and Venezuelan men. Both Colorados have a lot of far Venezuelan and Dominican girls along with
dorks "average guys" wearing their candidates flags like capes. Meanwhile the Frente and minor leftist parties are presenting fat old women, metro-gendered cocksuckers, and the actual unwashed poor of the streets as their public image.
The pichi above is "militating" for the minor leftist party UP. Ten feet into the future he will navigate around the dumpster into the street to avoid a dog barking in reaction to his proximity. He went into the street for several passing persons as well before our paths diverged. I have no doubts he earnestly supports the candidate and party whose flag he is carrying or he wouldn't be taking on the great personal risk of being this far outside his comfort zone. By this I don't mean there aren't pichis in my barrio, but that he is not a pichi of this barrio. Few things are more dangerous for the unwashed than being somewhere that one is both unwashed and unknown. Even bearing the message of "more gibs for the unwashed" modern democracy can't change the hard reality where more mouths pleading for "una moneda para comer algo" means less monedas to go around.