After losing all of last week's 0.025 BTC stake, this week calls for a simpler, bolder ticket. Fewer teams involved which means less anxiously flipping channels. Also I'm going to stick with the combinatorics thing. Every pick is an upset and every bet a parlay! Only three teams and four bets:
Event Pick Stake Odds Bet #1 South Carolina v Missouri Missouri Money Line 0.01 109.44 Nebraska v Illinois Illinois Money Line Texas A&M v Arkansas Arkansas Money Line Bet #2 Nebraska v Illinois Illinois Money Line 0.005 38.0 Texas A&M v Arkansas Arkansas Money Line Bet #3 South Carolina v Missouri Missouri Money Line 0.005 10.94 Texas A&M v Arkansas Arkansas Money Line Bet #4 South Carolina v Missouri Missouri Money Line 0.005 28.8 Nebraska v Illinois Illinois Money Line
Expect to lose, hope to win! In the worst case at least next week brings with it playoff baseball.1
- Yes, it is true that these exercises might seem to constitute "Wood Chipper fanfiction" of the sort I have cautioned people against. There is a great difference at work which separates these exercises. With the GAW Miners Virtual Girlfriend the customer waits months and hopes they can eke out any sort of profit at all, with these tickets I have instead bought admittance to an event. Scratch that, the two things are very alike. The actual difference is in the potential returns from the longshot.
The actual difference is that in Bet #1 one hundred to 1 is actually rather fair odds and the returns for that potential are proportionally just as handsome if it hits. Without diving into the Kelley Criterion and questions of optimization the first question you should ask of any bet is whether the best outcome adequately rewards you for the risk involved in proportion to the unlikely hood of the best outcome. The second is if you can handle the price of the worst outcome. The second question is the easier one to answer. The first question on the other hand is a hard problem. [↩]