Yesterday the utility of Bitbet as a market for hedging was demonstrated again when Bitcoin dropped under $400. This stuff works well an a number of people submit interesting bets of this sort that get accepted. Underneath all of this is an opportunity.
The Major League baseball season just opened up and there are only 4 MLB bets open on BitBet. Dear and not so dear readers, you have an opportunity to fill this void by writing interesting baseball bets suited to BitBet's format.1 I say this is an opportunity because Bitbet, if they accept a bet of yours, places a bet payable to an address you submit. If the bet they place for you wins, you get bitcoins for simply having submitted a bet. The closest thing to a catch is that the bet they place on your behalf is the on the outcome they initially grade less likely, but it isn't much of a catch since the initially less likely seeming outcome often wins. Well there is also the catch that the bet has to be accepted. If you first few submissions don't make it start looking at submissions that got accepted and drew a lot of bets.2
To get people started let us look at the four MLB BitBets submitted so far:
Basically MLB has two components, the American League which sucks donkey dick and the National League which smells funny. One team from each league competes in the World Series. Early in the season grading something like this is a coin flip, as the season goes on and home field advantage is decided in the All Star Game there may be well founded reasons to favor one over the other. This is as close to a canonical example of a great season long bet as may be found.
This is another good and solid season long bet. Thanks to deep pockets that can afford the Yankees to consistently field competitive rosters they can normally be considered credible contenders at the beginning of the season, and are frequently still competitive late in the season. This model doesn't work for every team though. If say you want to write a bet where "Yes" is the Marlins win the World Series BitBet probably would not accept it unless you contribute some of your own coin on that unlikely outcome.
The humble team proposition bet. There are 162 games in the MLB season. A 100 win season is exceptional. A 81 win season is disappointingly average. A 90 win season is about par for a team that makes the playoffs. This bet is a decent proxy for the Boston Red Sox making the playoffs.
The single player proposition bet. Masahiro is a hot new pitcher coming over from Japan. A win is a pitching statistic. An Ace accomplishment is a 20 win season. An 8-10 win season means you probably get to keep your job. A 15 win season is disappointingly good, either your offense failed you or your could have just not hung that breaking ball in the zone those few extra times.
Write interesting bets. Win off of coins you didn't stake, because you wrote a kick ass bet. This is Opportunity.
- This means some good season long bets, or bets from now to the all star break. NRL Rugby started up too, but the market for Bitcoin betting on that seems weaker since they seem to sell betting tickets from the league's own site. [↩]
- This stuff takes practice, but it isn't impossibru. [↩]